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Particle Thompson sampling (PTS) is a simple and flexible approximation of Thompson sampling for solving stochastic bandit problems. PTS circumvents the intractability of maintaining a continuous posterior distribution in Thompson sampling by replacing the continuous distribution with a discrete distribution supported at a set of weighted static particles. We analyze the dynamics of particles' weights in PTS for general stochastic bandits without assuming that the set of particles contains the unknown system parameter. It is shown that fit particles survive and unfit particles decay, with the fitness measured in KL-divergence. For Bernoulli bandit problems, all but a few fit particles decay. 

This paper proposes regenerative particle Thompson sampling (RPTS) as an improvement of particle Thompson sampling (PTS) for solving general stochastic bandit problems. PTS approximates Thompson sampling by replacing the continuous posterior distribution with a discrete distribution supported at a set of weighted static particles. PTS is flexible but may suffer from poor performance due to the tendency of the probability mass to concentrate on a small number of particles. RPTS exploits the particle weight dynamics of PTS and uses non-static particles: it deletes a particle if its probability mass gets sufficiently small and regenerates new particles in the vicinity of the surviving particles. Empirical evidence shows uniform improvement across a set of representative bandit problems without increasing the number of particles. 

Security analyses for consensus protocols in blockchain research have primarily focused on the synchronous model, where point-to-point communication delays are upper bounded by a known finite constant. These models are unrealistic in noisy settings, where messages may be lost (i.e. incur infinite delay). In this work, we study the impact of message losses on the security of the proof-of-work longest-chain protocol. We introduce a new communication model to capture the impact of message loss called the 0-∞ model, and derive a region of tolerable adversarial power under which the consensus protocol is secure. The guarantees are derived as a simple bound for the probability that a transaction violates desired security properties. Specifically, we show that this violation probability decays almost exponentially in the security parameter. Our approach involves constructing combinatorial objects from blocktrees, and identifying random variables associated with them that are amenable to analysis. This approach improves existing bounds and extends the known regime for tolerable adversarial threshold in settings where messages may be lost. 

The optimal receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, giving the maximum probability of detection as a function of the probability of false alarm, is a key information-theoretic indicator of the difficulty of a binary hypothesis testing problem (BHT). It is well known that the optimal ROC curve for a given BHT, corresponding to the likelihood ratio test, is theoretically determined by the probability distribution of the observed data under each of the two hypotheses. In some cases, these two distributions may be unknown or computationally intractable, but independent samples of the likelihood ratio can be observed. This raises the problem of estimating the optimal ROC for a BHT from such samples. The maximum likelihood estimator of the optimal ROC curve is derived, and it is shown to converge to the true optimal ROC curve in the \levy\ metric, as the number of observations tends to infinity. A classical empirical estimator, based on estimating the two types of error probabilities from two separate sets of samples, is also considered. The maximum likelihood estimator is observed in simulation experiments to be considerably more accurate than the empirical estimator, especially when the number of samples obtained under one of the two hypotheses is small. The area under the maximum likelihood estimator is derived; it is a consistent estimator of the true area under the optimal ROC curve. 

The theory of mean field games is a tool to understand noncooperative dynamic stochastic games with a large number of players. Much of the theory has evolved under conditions ensuring uniqueness of the mean field game Nash equilibrium. However, in some situations, typically involving symmetry breaking, non-uniqueness of solutions is an essential feature. To investigate the nature of non-unique solutions, this paper focuses on the technically simple setting where players have one of two states, with continuous time dynamics, and the game is symmetric in the players, and players are restricted to using Markov strategies. All the mean field game Nash equilibria are identified for a symmetric follow the crowd game. Such equilibria correspond to symmetric $\epsilon$-Nash Markov equilibria for $N$ players with $\epsilon$ converging to zero as $N$ goes to infinity. In contrast to the mean field game, there is a unique Nash equilibrium for finite $N.$ It is shown that fluid limits arising from the Nash equilibria for finite $N$ as $N$ goes to infinity are mean field game Nash equilibria, and evidence is given supporting the conjecture that such limits, among all mean field game Nash equilibria, are the ones that are stable fixed points of the mean field best response mapping. 

Abstract Community detection is considered for a stochastic block model graph of n vertices, with K vertices in the planted community, edge probability p for pairs of vertices both in the community, and edge probability q for other pairs of vertices. The main focus of the paper is on weak recovery of the community based on the graph G , with o ( K ) misclassified vertices on average, in the sublinear regime n 1- o (1) ≤ K ≤ o ( n ). A critical parameter is the effective signal-to-noise ratio λ = K 2 ( p - q ) 2 / (( n - K ) q ), with λ = 1 corresponding to the Kesten–Stigum threshold. We show that a belief propagation (BP) algorithm achieves weak recovery if λ > 1 / e, beyond the Kesten–Stigum threshold by a factor of 1 / e. The BP algorithm only needs to run for log * n + O (1) iterations, with the total time complexity O (| E |log * n ), where log * n is the iterated logarithm of n . Conversely, if λ ≤ 1 / e, no local algorithm can asymptotically outperform trivial random guessing. Furthermore, a linear message-passing algorithm that corresponds to applying a power iteration to the nonbacktracking matrix of the graph is shown to attain weak recovery if and only if λ > 1. In addition, the BP algorithm can be combined with a linear-time voting procedure to achieve the information limit of exact recovery (correctly classify all vertices with high probability) for all K ≥ ( n / log n ) (ρ BP + o (1)), where ρ BP is a function of p / q .